2026 Is Not a Uniform Recovery – It’s a Selection Year
Rent growth is localized. Refinancing pressure is surfacing selectively. Institutional capital is repositioning. Supply absorption is uneven. Here’s how those threads came together in January and February—and why submarket selection now matters more than the national headline.
The first two months of 2026 have reinforced one reality: this is not a uniform recovery cycle. Rent growth is localized. Refinancing pressure is surfacing selectively. Institutional capital is repositioning. Supply absorption is uneven. Below are the developments shaping the multifamily landscape in January and February—and where we are concentrating attention as we move toward Q2.
Rent Growth: Divergence Is Widening
Early 2026 rent data shows widening divergence between markets. Limited recent supply and durable renter demand are supporting stability in Chicago, New York City, and select Midwest metros. Markets still digesting 2024 and 2025 deliveries—Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Charlotte, Nashville, and Indianapolis—are recovering at very different speeds. In Austin and parts of DFW, concessions remain elevated. Charlotte and Nashville show improvement in certain submarkets but recovery is uneven. Indianapolis is normalizing after outsized pandemic-era gains.
The national narrative misses the point. There is no single “rent story” right now; submarket selection is increasingly decisive, and supply exposure is the primary driver of short-term performance dispersion. This matters for our underwriting because the rent-growth assumption that gets a deal to clear should look meaningfully different in Indianapolis than it does in Austin, and any model that doesn’t reflect that gap is mispricing risk.
The national rent number tells you almost nothing about the deal you’re actually underwriting. Submarket discipline does.
Refinancing Pressure Is Moving Into Transactions
The 2026 refinancing wave is no longer theoretical. Roughly $936 billion in CRE loans mature in 2026[1], with multifamily making up a significant share. For many sponsors, replacement debt is coming in 150–200 basis points above the loans being retired—properties underwritten at 2.5–3.5% in 2021 are now refinancing into a 5–6%+ environment.
What we are seeing in our pipeline reflects this: more loan sales, more short-sale discussions, rising preferred-equity-driven recapitalizations, and sponsors opting to restructure rather than transact outright. These are not widespread distress events, but capital structure friction is clearly rising. Liquidity exists. The gating factor in many transactions today is alignment between debt terms, equity basis, and operating performance.
REIT Consolidation: A Meaningful Signal at the Top
On February 23, Veris Residential announced it had agreed to be taken private in a $3.4 billion all-cash transaction[2] by a consortium led by Affinius Capital—a $61 billion real estate investment manager with over $12 billion in U.S. multifamily assets—in partnership with Vista Hill Partners. The $19 per share price represents a 23% premium to Veris’ unaffected price earlier in the month.
This deal is the culmination of Veris’ five-year pivot from a New Jersey suburban office landlord (formerly Mack-Cali) into a pure-play Class A multifamily REIT concentrated in the Northeast. That it attracted this level of institutional conviction is a meaningful signal. The broader takeaway: public apartment REITs trading at discounts to NAV continue to draw private capital, strong operators are scaling selectively, and portfolio reshuffling is underway.
For our acquisitions strategy this means top-end consolidation frequently creates downstream opportunity—asset dispositions, leadership transitions, gaps in local markets, and capital seeking new operator alignment. Periods of institutional consolidation tend to open space for emerging and regional operators to step into repositioning and acquisition opportunities the bigger platforms aren’t structured to chase.
Supply Burn-Off: Recovery Is Local
After record deliveries in 2024, new starts have fallen sharply—multifamily starts are now down 40–50% from their 2022 peak, with Q1 2026 tracking the lowest quarterly volume since 2011[3]. Recovery, however, remains market-specific, and within individual markets performance varies meaningfully by neighborhood.
The Sunbelt continues to absorb elevated supply—Austin deliveries are projected to fall 47% in 2026 and Phoenix another 40%—while select Midwest and Northeast metros are improving more quickly on steadier demand fundamentals. Even within Texas, urban core and suburban nodes are showing drastically different absorption patterns. Broad supply narratives miss this nuance. The signal we take is that 2026 is a transition year rather than a synchronized recovery, and local insight combined with data discipline creates an edge.
Policy: SFR Scrutiny and Capital Reallocation
Federal attention to institutional ownership of single-family homes intensified in January. On January 21, President Trump signed an Executive Order[4] directing federal agencies to prevent federal programs from facilitating sales of single-family homes to institutional investors. The important context: institutions own an estimated 1–3% of total SFR stock, concentrated in select high-growth markets, so the narrative of an institutional “takeover” of single-family housing is overstated.
That said, policy attention influences capital allocation regardless of whether the underlying concern is proportionate. If institutional SFR acquisition slows in response, capital is likely to rotate toward traditional multifamily, toward purpose-built Build-to-Rent communities, and toward structured rental alternatives more broadly. It’s worth distinguishing scattered-site SFR ownership (the focus of most policy criticism) from BTR communities, which operate more like multifamily assets and present a very different profile. Policy pressure on the former could act as a paradoxical tailwind for professionally managed rental communities.
We view this as a capital-flow dynamic, not a supply shock. No units are being added or removed from the market; the question is where institutional capital flows next.
Selectivity has replaced scarcity as the operating logic of this cycle. The capital is there—the conviction has to be earned.
Where Our Focus Remains
As we move toward Q2, our priorities are consistent: in-place yield that works at today’s rates; markets where supply curves are visibly bending; transactions driven by capital-structure friction rather than fundamental deterioration; and operational upside rather than cap-rate compression. There is opportunity in 2026. It is selective, and it rewards preparation.
Closing Thought
The early months of 2026 reinforce a simple theme: rent growth is localized, liquidity is structured, supply recovery is uneven, and capital remains disciplined. In this environment, data-driven conviction matters more than broad narratives. We remain focused on opportunities that stand on their own—operationally, financially, and structurally.
Will Thompson
Founder & CEO, Oakdale Capital
Sources
MMG Real Estate Advisors, “The 2026 CRE Refinancing Wall: Opportunities in Multifamily Distress.” mmgrea.com
PR Newswire, “Veris Residential to Be Acquired by Affinius Capital-Led Investor Consortium for $3.4 Billion in Cash,” February 23, 2026. prnewswire.com
Bisnow, “Apartment Construction Starts Plummet to 15-Year Low,” 2026. bisnow.com
The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Stops Wall Street from Competing with Main Street Homebuyers,” January 21, 2026. whitehouse.gov
