Quiet on the Surface, Repricing Underneath
November looked calm—rents stable, vacancies steady, financing easing—but underneath, supply was bending, capital was returning, and the FHFA quietly enlarged the 2026 agency runway. Here’s what stood out to us, and how we’re positioning.
November is one of those months that always sneaks up—one minute we’re handing out Halloween candy, the next we’re prepping Thanksgiving sides and arguing over football rivalries. The markets felt the same: calm on the surface, plenty simmering underneath. Below are five storylines from November that caught our eye, along with how they shape the way we’re positioning capital into year-end.
The Sector Is Finding Its Footing
Industry data published in November showed multifamily quietly stabilizing. Annual rent growth remained positive at +0.8% as of October, with effective rents now more than 20% above 2019 levels. National vacancy held at 6.5% in Q3 as the pace of new deliveries slowed, and Q3 apartment sales reached $43.8 billion—up 13% year over year[1], with cap rates hovering near 5.7% for the seventh straight quarter.
This matters for our underwriting because stabilization isn’t the same as recovery. Cap rates aren’t compressing; transaction volume is normalizing off a low base; and 71% of builders in the most recent NMHC survey still cite economic uncertainty as a reason for delaying starts. The signal we take from this is that pricing has reset to a defensible level, but the path to the next leg of value creation runs through operations, not multiple expansion.
Rents Slipped—Steepest October in 15+ Years
CoStar’s Apartments.com report[2], released November 7, showed national apartment rents falling to $1,708 in October—a 0.3% month-over-month decline and the steepest October drop in more than 15 years. Every region posted a decline, led by the West (−0.53%), followed by the South (−0.28%), Northeast (−0.24%) and Midwest (−0.18%). On a yearly basis, the Midwest still outperformed at +2.2% while the West slipped to −1.4%.
The metro split was sharper than the regional one. San Francisco (+5.8%), San Jose (+3.8%), and Chicago (+3.6%) led, while Austin (−4.6%), Denver (−3.7%), and San Antonio (−2.7%) lagged. For our acquisitions strategy this reinforces something we’ve been saying for two years: the national number is increasingly meaningless. Rent assumptions that get a deal to clear in Indianapolis should look nothing like those in Austin, and anyone modeling them similarly is mispricing supply risk.
There is no single “rent story” right now—there is only the market you actually own.
Supply Is Bending
The rebalancing thesis got stronger this month. Multifamily construction starts are now down 40–50% from their 2022 peak[3], with permitting activity off nearly 38%. Q3 deliveries dropped meaningfully year over year, and the active pipeline has contracted from its high. Sun Belt metros are still digesting earlier vintages—Austin, Phoenix, Charlotte are each absorbing 7–8% stock growth—but the forward pipeline tells a different story. Austin deliveries are projected to fall 47% in 2026, Denver more than half, and Phoenix another 40%.
For our acquisitions strategy this means the “supply burn” narrative is real but uneven. Northeast and Midwest markets, where less new product is coming online, continue to post above-average rent gains. The cleanest setups are where the 2026–2027 delivery curve is already bending sharply downward while in-place demand stays intact.
Bidding Activity Returns
October produced the second-highest monthly gain in JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index[4] of the year, supported by back-to-back Fed rate cuts. Multifamily led every property type. JLL cited the persistent 3.5 million-unit housing shortage and near-record-high home prices as the structural drivers keeping renters in place—and capital interested.
What’s notable in our pipeline is that investors are no longer fixated on the precise timing of the next cut. The conversation has shifted from “wait for the macro” to “underwrite the asset.” That’s a healthier posture for the market and a harder one for sellers with thin stories. Liquidity is back, but it is more discerning than it was at any point since 2022.
FHFA Expands the 2026 Runway
The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced that the 2026 multifamily volume cap will rise to $176 billion[5]—$88 billion each for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—a roughly 20% jump over 2025. The agency kept its 50% mission-driven requirement and continued to exempt workforce housing from the caps.
For our acquisitions strategy this is a meaningful tailwind. A larger agency runway compresses the spread between bid and offer on stabilized vintage product, supports a deeper refinance market in 2026, and reduces execution risk on the financing side of every deal we underwrite. The signal we take is straightforward: agency capital remains the cheapest, most reliable debt in the system, and FHFA is leaning into 2026 rather than away from it.
How We’re Positioning
The market is stabilizing but still working through oversupply. Effective rents are above pre-pandemic levels, vacancies are steady, and the October print confirmed that headline rent growth will stay soft. At the same time, starts are falling, bidding is back, and agency capital is expanding.
Our response is the same as it’s been: disciplined underwriting, conservative rent-growth assumptions, and a focus on stable cash flow. Equity partners continue to show strong interest in our “vintage yield” strategy—1970s, ’80s, and ’90s assets purchased at a defensible basis, with premium cash flow rather than aggressive renovation upside doing the work. The higher FHFA caps reinforce this approach by ensuring ample agency debt to finance acquisitions that deliver meaningful day-one cash flow.
The deals we want are the ones where the in-place economics already work—before any business plan begins.
Closing Thought
November’s headlines reinforce that multifamily is in adjustment, not transition. Growth is slower, supply is still working through the system, and yet investor confidence is quietly rebuilding. The path forward will be uneven, but the long-term fundamentals of rental housing remain intact.
We continue to work diligently through year-end to identify investments with conviction—ones that don’t require the macro environment to do the heavy lifting. As always, please reach out with questions or to discuss what we are seeing in our active markets, and we wish you a restful holiday season.
Will Thompson
Founder & CEO, Oakdale Capital
Sources
Multifamily Dive, “Apartment transactions jump 13% in Q3,” November 2025—MSCI Real Capital Analytics / NMHC data. multifamilydive.com
CoStar Group, “Apartments.com Releases Multifamily Rent Growth Report for October 2025,” November 7, 2025. costargroup.com
CBRE, “U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025: Multifamily.” cbre.com
JLL, “Global bidding activity improves as commercial real estate investment cycle gains momentum,” November 25, 2025. jll.com
FHFA, “U.S. Federal Housing Announces 2026 Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” November 2025. fhfa.gov
