The Year Discipline Came Back into Style
2025 didn’t reward conviction-by-narrative or financial engineering—it rewarded patient capital, vintage yield, and the unglamorous work of operating apartments well. As 2026 opens, four storylines will define whether that discipline continues to compound.
As we wrap up 2025, one thing is clear: this was a year that rewarded discipline. Markets normalized, underwriting assumptions were tested, and outcomes increasingly reflected both the strength of fundamentals and the quality of the underlying story. Not every deal made sense just because it was available and you underwrote it—and the deals that did make sense looked different than they did in 2021 or 2022.
2025 Reinforced the Thesis
This year didn’t change our thinking; it strengthened it. Across the market, assets with strong in-place yield, reasonable basis, and operational flexibility proved far more resilient than those relying on perfect execution or future assumptions.
We’ve spent a lot of time this year discussing vintage multifamily versus newer product, including the relatively new Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector. While newer assets offer lifestyle appeal, 2025 reminded us that cash flow, affordability, and downside protection matter most when conditions tighten. Vintage assets with durable demand and realistic rent levels continued to perform—not because they were flashy, but because they worked.
Cash flow you already own beats cash flow you have to manufacture, every time the cycle turns.
An Operating Year, Not a Financial Engineering Year
If 2024 was about patience, 2025 was about execution. Leasing velocity, traffic quality, delinquency management, and credit standards drove outcomes far more than cap rates or capital-structure creativity.
That meant making hard decisions: tightening standards, addressing underperforming units head-on, and prioritizing long-term rent roll health over short-term optics. These are not always the most comfortable choices, but they are the ones that compound value. The signal we take from 2025 is that the gap between operators who actually run the assets and those who outsource the work is widening—and that gap is going to keep showing up in returns.
Capital Markets Recalibrated
Capital markets became more honest in 2025. Good deals continued to trade, agency lenders stayed constructive where fundamentals justified it, and what disappeared were the shortcuts. Equity grew more selective, and underwriting assumptions became less forgiving. Returns increasingly flowed to deals that could stand on their own without relying on rate cuts or aggressive exit-cap compression.
This shift was healthy and overdue, but it has continued to suppress transaction volume. Preferred equity and rescue capital filled the gap, and many transactions functioned less as sales and more as self-recapitalizations. For our acquisitions strategy this means the pipeline is shorter than the underlying opportunity set—quietly, the best deals are getting done off-market with sponsors who have credible capital and a reputation for closing.
Stories to Watch in 2026
As we move into the new year, several macro and housing-sector developments are shaping our thinking.
Federal Reserve Dynamics
The Fed cut rates 25 bps in December to a range of 3.50%–3.75%[1]—the third consecutive reduction—but the dot plot signaled just one more cut in 2026, with seven officials preferring none. Three dissents (one for a larger cut, two for a hold) made it the most divided FOMC meeting since 2019. Chair Powell’s term expires May 15, 2026; the transition arrives at a pivotal moment[2]. A key date to watch is January 21, 2026, when the Supreme Court hears Trump v. Cook[3]—a case about whether a president can remove a Fed governor that carries real implications for the central bank’s independence.
The 2026 Refinancing Wall
Refinancing pressure is mounting as the extensions of 2024–2025 finally reach their limit. Roughly $936 billion in total CRE loans are scheduled to mature in 2026[4], an 18.8% increase over 2025, with multifamily maturities projected near $162 billion. With new loan rates often 150–200 bps above the debt they replace, owners will need strong NOI or fresh equity to bridge the gap. We expect this to be the dominant source of acquisition opportunity in 2026: capital-structure friction, not fundamentals deterioration.
Supply Burn-Off
After a massive wave of completions in 2024, deliveries slowed throughout 2025 and are expected to drop further to roughly 300,000–400,000 units in 2026[5]—a significant retreat from the 600,000+ units delivered in 2024. National vacancy ticked higher through late 2025 as the last wave of new product hit the market, but with starts down more than 40% from peak, a rebalancing phase is finally taking hold. We expect rent growth to stay muted through early 2026 as the market digests remaining inventory, with a more meaningful recovery emerging in the second half as the supply overhang clears.
2026 won’t be a synchronized recovery—it will be a year where supply curves bend at very different speeds in different markets.
Potential Institutional SFR Restrictions
On January 7, 2026, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he is taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes[6]. Institutions own only about 1–3% of the national SFR stock, but their footprint is concentrated in Sun Belt markets like Atlanta and Phoenix. If codified—or even partially implemented through agency guidance—the policy could redirect significant institutional capital toward conventional multifamily and purpose-built Build-to-Rent communities, both of which we view as net beneficiaries of any meaningful enforcement.
What We’re Watching Going Into 2026
We remain focused on opportunities where in-place economics do the heavy lifting. That includes vintage multifamily with clean fundamentals, selective adaptive reuse with a defensible basis, and situations where complexity creates the opportunity rather than obscures the risk. We’re encouraged by early signs of improved deal flow and a market that is increasingly rewarding precision over conviction.
Closing Thought
We’re grateful to our investors and partners for their trust throughout a demanding year. 2025 required discipline, persistence, and real operating work, and we believe that positions us well for what comes next. We enter 2026 cautiously optimistic, ready to lean in where the downside is protected and the fundamentals are real.
Will Thompson
Founder & CEO, Oakdale Capital
Sources
Federal Reserve, “FOMC Statement,” December 10, 2025. federalreserve.gov
CNBC, “Will he stay or will he go? Powell is not saying whether he’ll stay on Fed board when chair term ends,” January 2, 2026. cnbc.com
Wikipedia, “Trump v. Cook,” case history and Supreme Court oral argument schedule. en.wikipedia.org
MMG Real Estate Advisors, “The 2026 CRE Refinancing Wall: Opportunities in Multifamily Distress.” mmgrea.com
CBRE, “U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025: Multifamily.” cbre.com
CNBC, “Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes,” January 7, 2026. cnbc.com
